Thursday, December 8, 2016

University of New Orleans Survey Research Center Releases Poll on Louisiana Senate Runoff

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The University of New Orleans Survey Research Center has released the results of a poll about the runoff for the open Louisiana seat in the U.S. Senate. The poll finds that Republican candidate John Kennedy has a comfortable lead over Democratic candidate Foster Campbell. The interactive voice response telephone surveys, also known as “robo-calls,” surveyed 776 registered Louisiana voters on Dec. 6 about which candidate they preferred in Saturday’s election, as well as whether they thought the Affordable Care Act should be repealed.

Sixty-two percent of respondents favored Kennedy while 33 percent supported Campbell. White respondents are particularly supportive of Kennedy while African-Americans back Campbell. However, there is a greater degree of crossover of black voters to Kennedy than of white voters crossing over to Campbell. There is a double-digit gender gap in voter preference. Women are more likely to report they will vote for Kennedy, but they are also more supportive of Campbell than are men.

In the area of party affiliation, Republicans exhibit a much higher degree of loyalty to their candidate than do Democrats. Approximately one-quarter of Democrats say they are going to defect and vote for the Republican candidate.

Likely Louisiana voters support the idea of repealing the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, by a two-to-one margin—66 percent to 28 percent. White voters strongly endorse repealing the law; they are twice as likely as African-Americans to say it should be abolished. A majority of African-Americans oppose reversing Obamacare, but a sizeable plurality also think the law should be repealed.

The analysis reveals there is a double-digit gender gap on the question of repealing Obamacare. Women are twice as likely to answer that they support dismantling the healthcare law, but they are not as likely as men to advocate for its repeal.

The poll, which is conducted under the direction of UNO political scientist Ed Chervenak, yields a 3.5 percent margin of error at a 95 percent level of confidence. To review the entire poll, click here.

Since 1986, the University of New Orleans Survey Research Center has collected information about public opinions, beliefs and values on a wide range of social, economic and political issues. In that time, it has gained a reputation for accuracy and integrity in public opinion research.

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