The University of New Orleans’ Survey Research Center conducted an automated telephone
survey of active registered Republican voters in Louisiana on Wednesday, March 2,
2016. With Louisiana’s presidential primary approaching, the researchers constructed
the survey because no polls on the state’s presidential primary have been released
since last fall when Dr. Ben Carson was leading the GOP field.
The survey’s telephone calls were conducted on Wednesday with the anticipation of
a thinning GOP field in the wake of the results from Super Tuesday’s primaries and
caucuses. Dr. Ben Carson’s name was removed from the survey after he announced that
he had no real path to victory.
The survey was conducted by Edward Chervenak, director of the Survey Research Center,
and graduate research assistant Tony Licciardi. The sample for the survey was randomly
selected from all active registered Republicans in the state. The respondent sample
of 1,874 yields a 2.26 percent margin of error at a 95 percent level of confidence.
The sample matches the gender, age, race and regional parameters from the voter file
obtained from the Louisiana Secretary of State.
The survey was comprised of five questions/topics: Early Voting, Election Day Voting,
Candidate Choice, Gender and Age.
Here are the results of the survey:
- When asked to select from Republican candidates, most chose Donald Trump (38 percent).
He enjoys a double digit lead over the second-place finisher, Ted Cruz (26 percent).
Marco Rubio came in at 11 percent and John Kasich was at 5 percent. One in five registered
Republican voters reported they were undecided.
- Vote support from Trump was found across the state. He garnered his strongest support
in District 1 (suburban New Orleans parishes and the north shore). He did nearly as
well in District 2 and in District 5. Although he received more support than any other
candidate in District 3 (southwest Louisiana), it’s also the district where he received
his lowest level of support. Nearly one-quarter of registered Republicans in District
3 were undecided.
- Trump also enjoyed a plurality of support from both men and women. Rubio was the only
candidate to receive greater support from women than from men. Women were also more
likely than men to report they were undecided on whom to support in the primary.
- Trump received the most support across the three age categories. He garnered the most
support from registered Republicans age 35 to 54, the age category typically associated
with peak earning years. Rubio, who is considered to be the Republican who will lead
the conservative movement for the Millennial generation, did very poorly with the
youngest age group. The oldest registered Republicans were three times more likely
than youngest age category to support Rubio. Over one-quarter of the youngest registered
Republicans were undecided.
- Among those who reported they had voted early, Trump carried over one-half of their
vote, far ahead of the second-place finisher, Ted Cruz. As for the respondents who
stated they would be voting on Saturday, Trump again leads the pack. He enjoys a nine-point
advantage over Cruz. However, 17 percent said they still had not made up their mind
on who they supported in the primary.
To view the full survey, click here.
This survey is a departure from the Survey Research Center’s traditional live telephone
polling. The center and its researchers seek to explore new and developing technology
for data collection methods as they become available.
Since 1986, the UNO Survey Research Center has collected information about public
opinions, beliefs and values on a wide range of social, economic and political issues.
In that time, it has gained a reputation for accuracy and integrity in public opinion